Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge 2026
The last round of the 2026 World Rally-Raid Championship, and for the first time the place where the title is decided. Seth Quintero arrives 14 points clear of Sébastien Loeb and 20 clear of Nasser Al-Attiyah, and our simulations make him champion in 55.8 per cent of cases. No entry list has been published yet, so every board below is a provisional field. Whatever happens here is also the last result the Dakar 2027 forecast will see before January.
Who wins the finale, and who takes the world title?
- 1Nasser Al-Attiyah14.4%
- 2Henk Lategan7.6%
- 3Sébastien Loeb7.5%
How this forecast came together
RaidRating started with a simple question: how predictable is rally raid? The FIA World Rally-Raid Championship has published a championship table for every round since the series began in 2022. Those tables record, for every registered crew, the position at each event and the stage points collected along the way. We collected all of them, checked every recomputed total against the official one, and turned them into a single results archive.
From that archive each crew gets a strength rating. It is fitted with a Plackett-Luce model, the same family used to rate chess players and ranked-choice contests, on two orderings per event: where a crew finished, and how many stage points it scored. Stage points matter because they show pace that a puncture, a navigation error or a broken driveshaft can erase from the final classification. Older results fade with an eighteen-month half-life, and the Dakar counts 1.4 times a normal round because two weeks tell you more than five days.
To forecast a race we then run it twenty thousand times. Each run adds noise to every rating, draws retirements, and sorts the field. Counting how often a crew wins, reaches the podium or finishes in the top five gives the probabilities on this page. The rating model itself is refitted many times on resampled seasons, which is where the ranges under the numbers come from.
Before publishing anything we test the model the only honest way: by pretending we did not know the result. Fitted only on what was known before each round, it put 13.2 per cent on the eventual winner across the eleven Ultimate rallies from 2024 to 2026, against 4.6 per cent for a blind guess. That edge is real and modest. It is why the numbers here carry ranges rather than decimals, and why they are published as analysis and never as betting advice.
Two rankings live side by side on every board. The FIA keeps a Priority Drivers list for cross-country rallies, with Platinum and Gold as the named professional tiers; everyone else registered in the championship holds Silver status. Filtering to non-priority crews answers the question most of the field is actually racing: who is the best of the rest. In this provisional field 17 of the 38 Ultimate crews hold Platinum or Gold. The page is updated when the entry list appears and after every stage once the rally starts.
Who wins the Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge in Ultimate
Nasser Al-Attiyah leads at 14.4% in a provisional field of 38. No entry list yet; the field is the 2026 championship crews in the class they raced last.
Twenty thousand simulated runnings over 38 crews, plus 60 bootstrap refits of the rating model. The range under each number is the 10th to 90th percentile across those refits. Hover any column header for its definition.
| # | Crew | Rating | Win | Podium | Top 5 | DNF | Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Nasser Al-AttiyahPlatinumT1+ with Fabian Lurquin QAT · THE DACIA SANDRIDERS · dacia sandrider | 4.37 | 14.4% 10.5–16.7 | 34.1% 26.9–39.2 | 48.2% | 18% | 11.4 3–13 | |
| 02 | Henk LateganPlatinumT1+ with Brett Cummings RSA · TOYOTA GAZOO RACING W2RC · toyota hilux gr | 3.14 | 7.6% 3.6–14.1 | 21.5% 11.7–34.4 | 33.8% | 18% | 13.5 4–17 | |
| 03 | Sébastien LoebGoldT1+ with Édouard Boulanger FRA · THE DACIA SANDRIDERS · dacia sandrider | 3.13 | 7.5% 3.6–11.3 | 21.2% 12.5–29.0 | 33.0% | 18% | 13.6 4–17 | |
| 04 | Lucas MoraesPlatinumT1+ with Pablo Moreno BRA · THE DACIA SANDRIDERS · dacia sandrider | 2.93 | 6.8% 3.9–10.1 | 19.4% 12.3–27.8 | 30.3% | 18% | 14.1 4–19 | |
| 05 | Seth QuinteroGoldT1+ with Andrew Short USA · TOYOTA GAZOO RACING W2RC · toyota hilux gr | 2.82 | 6.0% 4.1–8.5 | 18.0% 12.4–22.9 | 28.8% | 18% | 14.4 5–19 | |
| 06 | Mitch GuthrieGoldT1+ with Kellon Walch USA · FORD RACING · ford raptor | 2.74 | 5.8% 4.0–7.3 | 17.5% 12.4–20.7 | 28.2% | 18% | 14.4 5–19 | |
| 07 | João FerreiraSilverT1+ with Filipe Palmeiro POR · TOYOTA GAZOO RACING SA · toyota hilux imt evo | 2.66 | 5.7% 3.0–8.6 | 16.3% 10.1–24.5 | 26.7% | 18% | 14.9 5–20 | |
| 08 | Saood VariawaGoldT1+ with Charan Moore RSA · TOYOTA GAZOO RACING SA · toyota hilux imt evo | 2.40 | 4.5% 3.4–5.1 | 13.8% 10.7–15.6 | 22.8% | 18% | 15.7 6–21 | |
| 09 | Yazeed Al RajhiPlatinumT1+ with Dennis Zenz SAU · OVERDRIVE RACING · toyota hilux gr | 2.40 | 4.5% 2.1–6.9 | 13.7% 7.4–19.9 | 22.8% | 18% | 15.6 6–21 | |
| 10 | Nani RomaGoldT1+ with Alex Haro ESP · FORD RACING · ford raptor | 2.12 | 3.5% 1.8–5.1 | 11.0% 6.2–15.8 | 18.5% | 18% | 16.7 7–23 | |
| 11 | Eryk GoczałGoldT1+ with Szymon Gospodarczyk POL · ENERGYLANDIA RALLY TEAM · ford raptor | 2.09 | 3.5% 1.7–5.3 | 10.5% 5.7–15.2 | 18.2% | 18% | 16.8 7–23 | |
| 12 | Carlos SainzPlatinumT1+ with Daniel Oliveras ESP · FORD RACING · ford raptor | 2.06 | 3.2% 1.5–6.4 | 10.4% 4.7–18.2 | 18.1% | 18% | 16.9 7–23 | |
| 13 | Cristina GutiérrezSilverT1+ with Marc Solà ESP · SANTANA RACING TEAM · santana 400 t1+ | 1.83 | 2.6% 1.5–3.5 | 8.6% 5.4–10.8 | 15.0% | 18% | 17.9 9–25 | |
| 14 | Mathieu SerradoriGoldtbc with Loïc Minaudier FRA · CENTURY RACING FACTORY TEAM · century racing cr7 | 1.82 | 2.5% 1.3–4.3 | 8.3% 4.5–13.2 | 15.0% | 18% | 17.9 8–25 | |
| 15 | Mattias EkströmGoldT1+ with Emil Bergkvist SWE · FORD RACING · ford raptor | 1.72 | 2.5% 1.1–4.5 | 7.4% 3.6–13.9 | 13.4% | 18% | 18.5 9–26 | |
| 16 | Guerlain de MéviusGoldT1+ with Mathieu Baumel BEL · X-RAID TEAM · x-raid mini jcw 3.0i | 1.66 | 2.1% 1.2–2.9 | 6.9% 4.3–8.9 | 12.6% | 18% | 18.8 10–26 | |
| 17 | Marek GoczałSilverT1+ with Maciej Marton POL · ENERGYLANDIA RALLY TEAM · ford raptor | 1.42 | 1.9% 0.7–2.8 | 5.5% 2.3–8.4 | 9.9% | 18% | 20.0 11–27 | |
| 18 | Romain DumasGoldT1+ with Anthony Pes FRA · RD LIMITED · ford raptor | 1.52 | 1.7% 1.2–2.0 | 5.9% 4.4–6.7 | 10.7% | 18% | 19.6 11–27 | |
| 19 | Martin ProkopGoldT1+ with Viktor Chytka CZE · ORLEN JIPOCAR TEAM · ford raptor | 1.42 | 1.4% 0.8–2.2 | 4.9% 2.9–6.8 | 9.4% | 18% | 20.2 12–28 | |
| 20 | Lucio ÁlvarezSilverT1+ with Bernardo Graue ARG · SVR · toyota hilux imt evo | 1.32 | 1.3% 0.7–1.7 | 4.6% 2.6–5.5 | 8.2% | 18% | 20.8 12–28 |
Where would you finish in this field?
Most crews in a rally raid are not racing for the win. They are racing the other non-priority crews, and a top ten among works teams is the result of a career. Pick the profile closest to yours: the model reads how crews like that have actually finished at World Championship rounds since 2023, places you accordingly, then lets you adjust the pace.
W2RC standings after four rounds
This is the official FIA World Rally-Raid Championship table, which pools Ultimate, Challenger and SSV crews into one title. The class titles are ranked separately.
| # | Crew | Dakar | Portugal | Ruta 40 | Maroc | Abu Dhabi | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Seth Quintero co-driver to be confirmed USA · TOYOTA GAZOO RACING W2RC | 24 | 37 | 40 | 34 | — | 135 |
| 02 | Sébastien Loeb co-driver to be confirmed FRA · THE DACIA SANDRIDERS | 39 | 48 | 27 | 7 | — | 121 |
| 03 | Nasser Al-Attiyah co-driver to be confirmed QAT · THE DACIA SANDRIDERS | 73 | 7 | 31 | 4 | — | 115 |
| 04 | João Ferreira co-driver to be confirmed POR · TOYOTA GAZOO RACING SA | 12 | 34 | 6 | 34 | — | 86 |
| 05 | Henk Lategan co-driver to be confirmed RSA · TOYOTA GAZOO RACING W2RC | 20 | 1 | 35 | 29 | — | 85 |
| 06 | Nani Roma co-driver to be confirmed ESP · FORD RACING | 45 | — | 14 | 18 | — | 77 |
| 07 | Lucas Moraes co-driver to be confirmed BRA · THE DACIA SANDRIDERS | 24 | 29 | 4 | 13 | — | 70 |
| 08 | Mattias Ekström co-driver to be confirmed SWE · FORD RACING | 52 | 1 | — | 9 | — | 62 |
| 09 | Carlos Sainz co-driver to be confirmed ESP · FORD RACING | 27 | 1 | 10 | 20 | — | 58 |
| 10 | Eryk Goczał co-driver to be confirmed POL · ENERGYLANDIA RALLY TEAM | 11 | 11 | 16 | 18 | — | 56 |
| 11 | Mathieu Serradori co-driver to be confirmed FRA · CENTURY RACING FACTORY TEAM | 27 | 2 | — | 16 | — | 45 |
| 12 | Mitch Guthrie co-driver to be confirmed USA · FORD RACING | 23 | — | 1 | 20 | — | 44 |
| 13 | Saood Variawa co-driver to be confirmed RSA · TOYOTA GAZOO RACING SA | 16 | 1 | 19 | 1 | — | 37 |
| 14 | Yazeed Al Rajhi co-driver to be confirmed SAU · OVERDRIVE RACING | 5 | 17 | 13 | 1 | — | 36 |
| 15 | Giniel Botterill co-driver to be confirmed RSA · TOYOTA GAZOO RACING SA | 9 | 24 | — | 1 | — | 34 |
| 16 | Marek Goczał co-driver to be confirmed POL · ENERGYLANDIA RALLY TEAM | 11 | 8 | 2 | 7 | — | 28 |
| 17 | Martin Prokop co-driver to be confirmed CZE · ORLEN JIPOCAR TEAM | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | — | 28 |
| 18 | Toby Price co-driver to be confirmed AUS · TOYOTA GAZOO RACING W2RC | 27 | — | — | — | — | 27 |
| 19 | Alexandre Pinto co-driver to be confirmed POR · OLD FRIENDS RALLY TEAM | 2 | 10 | 9 | 3 | — | 24 |
| 20 | Puck Klaassen co-driver to be confirmed RSA · KTM X-BOW POWERED BY G RALLY TEAM | 4 | 2 | 8 | 1 | — | 15 |
| 21 | Guerlain de Mévius co-driver to be confirmed BEL · X-RAID TEAM | 11 | — | — | 4 | — | 15 |
| 22 | Marcos Baumgart co-driver to be confirmed BRA · SVR | — | 6 | 2 | 6 | — | 14 |
| 23 | Hernán Garcés co-driver to be confirmed CHI · OVERDRIVE RACING | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | — | 14 |
| 24 | Stéphane Peterhansel co-driver to be confirmed FRA · DEFENDER RALLY | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | — | 13 |
| 25 | Charles Munster co-driver to be confirmed LUX · KTM X-BOW POWERED BY G RALLY TEAM | 4 | 7 | — | — | — | 11 |
| 26 | Cristina Gutiérrez co-driver to be confirmed ESP · SANTANA RACING TEAM | 11 | — | — | — | — | 11 |
| 27 | Denis Krotov co-driver to be confirmed KGZ · M-SPORT RALLY RAID TEAM | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | — | 11 |
| 28 | Rokas Baciuška co-driver to be confirmed LTU · DEFENDER RALLY | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | — | 11 |
| 29 | Sara Price co-driver to be confirmed USA · DEFENDER RALLY | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | 10 |
| 30 | Kees Koolen co-driver to be confirmed NED · G RALLY TEAM | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | 10 |
| 31 | Mindaugas Sidabras co-driver to be confirmed LTU · Izoton Sport Brp | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | 10 |
| 32 | Akira Miura co-driver to be confirmed JPN · TEAM LAND CRUISER TOYOTA AUTO BODY | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — | 9 |
| 33 | Joan Piferrer co-driver to be confirmed ESP · Buggy Masters Team Brp | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | 9 |
| 34 | Lucio Álvarez co-driver to be confirmed ARG · SVR | — | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | 8 |
| 35 | João Monteiro co-driver to be confirmed POR · Can-Am Factory Team Brp | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | 8 |
| 36 | Michał Goczał co-driver to be confirmed POL · ENERGYLANDIA RALLY TEAM | 8 | — | — | — | — | 8 |
| 37 | Rui Carneiro co-driver to be confirmed POR · MMP | 4 | 2 | — | 2 | — | 8 |
| 38 | Paul Spierings co-driver to be confirmed NED · REBELLION - SPIERINGS | 4 | 2 | — | 2 | — | 8 |
| 39 | Jeremías González Ferioli co-driver to be confirmed ARG · Can-Am Factory Team Latam Brp | 4 | 2 | — | 2 | — | 8 |
| 40 | Pedro Gonçalves co-driver to be confirmed POR · BBR MOTORSPORT | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 7 |
| 41 | Dania Akeel co-driver to be confirmed KSA · ODYSSEY ACADEMY BY BBR | 4 | 1 | — | 2 | — | 7 |
| 42 | Laia Sanz co-driver to be confirmed ESP · EBRO AUDAX MOTORSPORT | 4 | 2 | — | 1 | — | 7 |
| 43 | Romain Dumas co-driver to be confirmed FRA · RD LIMITED | 2 | — | — | 4 | — | 6 |
| 44 | Yasir Seaidan co-driver to be confirmed KSA · NASSER RACING TEAM | 4 | — | — | 2 | — | 6 |
| 45 | Hassan Jameel co-driver to be confirmed KSA · South Racing Can-Am Brp | 4 | — | — | 2 | — | 6 |
| 46 | Lionel Baud co-driver to be confirmed FRA · X-RAID TEAM | 4 | — | — | 2 | — | 6 |
| 47 | Miroslav Zapletal co-driver to be confirmed CZE · OFFROADSPORT | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 48 | Lucas Del Rio co-driver to be confirmed CHI · BBR MOTORSPORT | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 49 | Pau Navarro co-driver to be confirmed ESP · ODYSSEY ACADEMY BY BBR | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 50 | Kevin Benavides co-driver to be confirmed ARG · ODYSSEY ACADEMY BY BBR | 4 | — | — | 1 | — | 5 |
| 51 | Hervé Guillaume co-driver to be confirmed FRA · BTR-PROPARC | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 52 | Helder Rodrigues co-driver to be confirmed POR · SANTAG RACING | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 53 | Richard Aczel co-driver to be confirmed GBR · South Racing Can-Am Brp | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 54 | Maciej Oleksowicz co-driver to be confirmed POL · South Racing Can-Am Brp | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 55 | Manuel Andujar co-driver to be confirmed ARG · Can-Am Factory Team Latam Brp | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 56 | Francisco López Contardo co-driver to be confirmed CHI · Can-Am Factory Team Latam Brp | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 57 | Ronald Basso co-driver to be confirmed FRA · TEAM LAND CRUISER TOYOTA AUTO BODY | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 58 | Kyle Chaney co-driver to be confirmed USA · Can-Am Factory Team Brp | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 59 | Nicolás Cavigliasso co-driver to be confirmed ARG · VERTICAL MOTORSPORT | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 60 | David Zille co-driver to be confirmed ARG · BBR MOTORSPORT | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 61 | Sergei Remennik co-driver to be confirmed ANA · BBR MOTORSPORT | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 62 | Hunter Miller co-driver to be confirmed USA · Can-Am Factory Team Brp | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 63 | Pim Klaassen co-driver to be confirmed NED · DKR / DaklaPack Rallysport | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 64 | R. Busi co-driver to be confirmed ITA · X-RAID TEAM | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 65 | Abdulaziz Al-Kuwari co-driver to be confirmed QAT · QMMF TEAM BY NASSER RACING | 2 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 |
| 66 | Nathan Hayashi co-driver to be confirmed CAN · THE GEAR SHOP CANADA TM | 4 | — | — | — | — | 4 |
| 67 | Jean-Luc Ceccaldi co-driver to be confirmed FRA · JLC Racing | 2 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 |
| 68 | Isidre Esteve co-driver to be confirmed ESP · REPSOL TOYOTA RALLY TEAM | 2 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 |
| 69 | Daniel Schröder co-driver to be confirmed GER · PS LASER RACING | 2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 |
| 70 | Jourdan Serderidis co-driver to be confirmed JOR · M-SPORT RALLY RAID TEAM | 2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 |
| 71 | Pedro Mac Dowell co-driver to be confirmed BRA · South Racing Can-Am Brp | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | 2 |
| 72 | Luís Cidade co-driver to be confirmed POR · South Racing Can-Am Brp | — | 2 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 73 | Mitchel van den Brink co-driver to be confirmed NED · DAKLAPACK RALLYSPORT | — | 2 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 74 | João Dias co-driver to be confirmed POR · SANTAG RACING | 2 | — | — | — | — | 2 |
| 75 | Matthias Walkner co-driver to be confirmed AUT · South Racing Can-Am Brp | — | — | — | 2 | — | 2 |
| 76 | Martin Koloc co-driver to be confirmed CZE · Buggyra ZM Racing | 2 | — | — | — | — | 2 |
| 77 | Cristian Baumgart co-driver to be confirmed BRA · SVR | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2 |
| 78 | A. Koloc co-driver to be confirmed UAE · Buggyra ZM Racing | 2 | — | — | — | — | 2 |
| 79 | Mark Mustermann co-driver to be confirmed AUT · MM RALLYE | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | 2 |
| 80 | Eugenio Amos co-driver to be confirmed ITA · South Racing Can-Am Brp | — | — | — | 1 | — | 1 |
Who wins the 2026 world championship
Abu Dhabi decides the title. Seth Quintero arrives on 135 points, 14 ahead of Sébastien Loeb and 20 ahead of Nasser Al-Attiyah. Simulating the finale with the real points scale, including a draw from the historical spread of stage points for each finishing position, Quintero is champion in 55.8 per cent of the runs. Al-Attiyah, further back but the model’s favourite to win the rally, takes it in 22.9 per cent, and Loeb in 21.3. Nobody else wins it in any simulation.
| # | Crew | Now | Median final | Champion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Seth Quintero | 135 | 144 | 55.8% | |
| 02 | Sébastien Loeb | 121 | 132 | 21.3% | |
| 03 | Nasser Al-Attiyah | 115 | 133 | 22.9% | |
| 04 | João Ferreira | 86 | 94 | 0.0% | |
| 05 | Henk Lategan | 85 | 96 | 0.0% | |
| 06 | Nani Roma | 77 | 83 | 0.0% |
How well this model does on a rally-length round
Each crew carries a strength rating fitted with a Plackett-Luce model on every W2RC event since 2022. Two orderings feed it: the final classification, and the order of stage points scored, which captures pace that a mechanical failure or a navigation error hides. The stage-point signal carries 65 per cent of the weight, and a crew that scores no stage points at an event counts as beaten by every crew that did. Results decay with an eighteen-month half-life and the Dakar counts 1.4 times a normal round.
A race is simulated as a strength score plus noise, with the noise averaged over three draws for a five-day rally against six for the Dakar. A shorter rally gives the fastest crew less time to prove it, so the spread of plausible outcomes is wider.
Retirement risk is each crew’s own rate at rally-length rounds, pulled toward the field rate of about 12 per cent, floored at 4 and capped at 25. A crew with no record gets the field rate and the newcomer rating of 0.55, which is what a first-time entrant in Ultimate has historically been worth. Crews that have raced another class carry no rating across: we tested that on the 24 class changes in the archive and it did not predict the new class better than the newcomer rating. Those crews are marked class change and their record is in the tooltip.
What the Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge is
The Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge is the United Arab Emirates’ round of the FIA and FIM World Rally-Raid Championship (W2RC), the world championship of cross-country rallying that also includes the Dakar Rally. The 2026 edition is the 35th. It runs under the patronage of Sheikh Hamdan bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Ruler’s Representative in Al Dhafra Region.
The 2026 edition
The rally runs from 22 to 27 November and is round five of five. For the first time the World Championship season ends here, which means the overall title is settled in the Emirati desert. For the first time in the event’s history it also starts and finishes in the Al Ain region, after a first visit there in 2025. The organisers have not yet published the route or the stage distances.
Who runs it
The rally is organised by the Emirates Motorsports Organization (EMSO) together with the Abu Dhabi Sports Council.
A short history
The event was founded in 1991 by Mohammed Ben Sulayem, now President of the FIA, and joined the FIA World Cup for Cross-Country Rallies two years later. For decades it has been tied to the Al Dhafra region and the dunes of the Rub’ al Khali, the Empty Quarter. In recent seasons it ran shortly after the Dakar, early in the year; for 2026 it moved to a November slot because Ramadan falls in February and March, returning to a late-season date it also held in the World Cup era.
Questions people ask
When is the Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge 2026?
22 to 27 November 2026. It is the fifth and final round of the 2026 FIA World Rally-Raid Championship.
Where does it start and finish?
In the Al Ain region of Abu Dhabi, for the first time in the event’s history. The route itself has not yet been published.
Is it part of the Dakar?
No. It is a separate event, but both are rounds of the FIA World Rally-Raid Championship. In 2026 Abu Dhabi closes the season, and the Dakar opens the next one in January.
Who can still win the 2026 world championship?
Realistically three drivers. Seth Quintero leads on 135 points ahead of Sébastien Loeb on 121 and Nasser Al-Attiyah on 115. Our simulations make Quintero champion in about 56 per cent of cases, Al-Attiyah in 23 and Loeb in 21.
Who is favourite to win in Abu Dhabi?
Our model has Nasser Al-Attiyah as favourite at 14.4 per cent, ahead of Henk Lategan at 7.6 and Sébastien Loeb at 7.5, with Lucas Moraes as the dark horse. The field is provisional, so the favourite losing is still much the likelier outcome.
Why is there no entry list yet?
The organisers have not published one. Until they do, the boards use the crews that started a 2026 World Championship round, and they will be recomputed when the official list appears.