Dakar 2027
Two weeks, fourteen stages, and the only event the model weights at 1.4 times a normal round. Nasser Al-Attiyah starts as the clearest favourite the model has produced at 25 per cent, with Henk Lategan next. A quarter of the professional field will not see the finish. Whether the rally starts at all is a separate question, answered below.
Our estimate: three in four that the Dakar 2027 runs in January
Saudi Arabia has been hit by Iranian and Houthi missiles and drones since the war began on 28 February 2026, Formula 1 has cancelled and relocated Gulf races, and a KTM adviser expects the Dakar to be cancelled. A.S.O. said on 15 September that preparations run as planned and that it would communicate shortly. The route stays north of the areas under travel warnings. Our reading of the evidence, updated as it changes, is in the magazine. Every probability on this page is conditional on the rally running.
Why Morocco matters for this page
Every crew on this board carries a strength rating fitted on all World Championship results since 2022, the same rating that drives the Rallye du Maroc forecast. The Dakar simulation differs in three ways: it averages six daily draws instead of three, because two weeks give the quicker crew more time to prove it; it uses each crew’s own Dakar retirement record, pulled toward the 15 per cent field rate; and it counts the Dakar itself at 1.4 times a normal round when fitting the ratings.
The Rallye du Maroc on 28 September to 3 October is the last long test before the Dakar and the most recent result the model will see. The table further down shows what a Morocco win or an early retirement would do to each contender’s Dakar odds. The movements are moderate: a strong season already anchors the favourites, and one five-day rally cannot overturn it. Abu Dhabi in late November adds one more data point before the ratings freeze for January.
Two rankings live side by side on every board, as in Morocco. The FIA keeps a Priority Drivers list for cross-country rallies with Platinum and Gold as the named professional tiers; everyone else registered for the championship holds Silver status. Filtering to non-priority crews answers the question most of the Dakar field is actually racing: who is the best of the rest. The Dakar backtests are the strongest evidence we have that the method works: fitted only on what was known beforehand, the model had both recent winners in its top two picks.
Who wins the Dakar 2027 in Ultimate
Al-Attiyah starts as the clearest Dakar favourite the model has produced, on the strength of his 2026 win and the pace he has shown all season. The board assumes he and Loeb find competitive seats after Dacia’s exit; the Toyota camp of Lategan, Moraes and Quintero is the alternative.
Twenty thousand simulated Dakars over 46 crews, plus 60 bootstrap refits of the rating model. The range under each number is the 10th to 90th percentile across those refits. Hover any column header for its definition.
| # | Crew | Rating | Win | Podium | Top 5 | DNF | Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Nasser Al-AttiyahNo priority co-driver to be confirmed QAT | 3.61 | 1950.0% | 4460.0% | 5980.0% | 1100% | 4.7 | |
| 02 | Sébastien LoebNo priority co-driver to be confirmed FRA | 4.51 | 1780.0% | 4270.0% | 5870.0% | 1600% | 4.4 | |
| 03 | Henk LateganNo priority co-driver to be confirmed RSA | 2.40 | 880.0% | 2390.0% | 3680.0% | 600% | 7.9 | |
| 04 | Lucas MoraesNo priority co-driver to be confirmed BRA | 2.34 | 790.0% | 2240.0% | 3550.0% | 600% | 8.0 | |
| 05 | Mattias EkströmNo priority co-driver to be confirmed SWE | 3.11 | 740.0% | 2380.0% | 3860.0% | 600% | 7.6 | |
| 06 | Yazeed Al RajhiNo priority co-driver to be confirmed SAU | 2.13 | 430.0% | 1350.0% | 2330.0% | 2800% | 8.5 | |
| 07 | Mitch GuthrieNo priority co-driver to be confirmed USA | 2.56 | 410.0% | 1530.0% | 2900.0% | 600% | 8.4 | |
| 08 | Nani RomaNo priority co-driver to be confirmed ESP | 1.81 | 410.0% | 1320.0% | 2310.0% | 600% | 10.1 | |
| 09 | Carlos SainzNo priority co-driver to be confirmed ESP | 2.23 | 380.0% | 1340.0% | 2450.0% | 1500% | 8.8 | |
| 10 | Seth QuinteroNo priority co-driver to be confirmed USA | 1.62 | 360.0% | 1320.0% | 2330.0% | 600% | 10.0 | |
| 11 | João FerreiraNo priority co-driver to be confirmed POR | 1.95 | 350.0% | 1260.0% | 2310.0% | 600% | 9.3 | |
| 12 | Juan Cruz YacopiniNo priority co-driver to be confirmed ARG | 1.86 | 290.0% | 1110.0% | 2170.0% | 600% | 9.4 | |
| 13 | Saood VariawaNo priority co-driver to be confirmed RSA | 1.88 | 280.0% | 1120.0% | 2200.0% | 600% | 9.5 | |
| 14 | Eryk GoczałNo priority co-driver to be confirmed POL | 1.71 | 210.0% | 860.0% | 1750.0% | 600% | 10.3 | |
| 15 | Cristina GutiérrezNo priority co-driver to be confirmed ESP | 1.82 | 200.0% | 810.0% | 1680.0% | 600% | 10.7 | |
| 16 | Martin ProkopNo priority co-driver to be confirmed CZE | 1.54 | 180.0% | 770.0% | 1540.0% | 600% | 11.0 | |
| 17 | Giniel BotterillNo priority co-driver to be confirmed RSA | 1.59 | 140.0% | 530.0% | 1120.0% | 600% | 11.8 | |
| 18 | Toby PriceNo priority co-driver to be confirmed AUS | 1.79 | 120.0% | 480.0% | 970.0% | 600% | 13.2 | |
| 19 | Guerlain de MéviusNo priority co-driver to be confirmed BEL | 0.68 | 60.0% | 210.0% | 460.0% | 600% | 15.1 | |
| 20 | Mathieu SerradoriNo priority co-driver to be confirmed FRA | 0.85 | 50.0% | 240.0% | 530.0% | 600% | 14.5 |
Where would you finish in this field?
The Dakar field is twice the size of a normal round and half of it is not registered for the championship. Finishing at all is the first ambition; a top thirty among the registered crews is a very good Dakar for a privateer. Pick the profile closest to yours and adjust the pace.
What the Rallye du Maroc would change
For each contender we add a hypothetical Rallye du Maroc result to the archive, refit the ratings and rerun the Dakar. Two cases: the crew wins in Morocco with the rest of the field in its current rating order, or it retires early without scoring stage points. The first column is the Dakar win probability today, from a single fit without bootstrap ranges.
| # | Crew | Now | Wins Maroc | Retires in Maroc |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Nasser Al-Attiyah | 23.0% | 23.2%+0.2 | 15.8%−7.1 |
| 02 | Henk Lategan | 11.2% | 13.2%+1.9 | 7.0%−4.2 |
| 03 | Sébastien Loeb | 10.0% | 10.7%+0.6 | 6.5%−3.6 |
| 04 | Lucas Moraes | 9.3% | 10.2%+0.9 | 6.1%−3.2 |
| 05 | Seth Quintero | 7.1% | 8.1%+0.9 | 4.7%−2.4 |
| 06 | João Ferreira | 4.8% | 5.9%+1.1 | 3.1%−1.7 |
| 07 | Nani Roma | 3.8% | 5.0%+1.2 | 2.3%−1.5 |
| 08 | Mattias Ekström | 3.6% | 5.3%+1.6 | 2.2%−1.5 |
Podiums since the championship began
Al-Attiyah has won three of the five Saudi-era Dakars that count for the World Championship, and only Sainz in 2024 and Al Rajhi in 2025 have beaten him to it. That is why a 25 per cent favourite is not an exaggeration on this event, where it would be on a five-day rally.
| Year | Ultimate | Challenger | SSV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Nasser Al-Attiyah 2. Nani Roma 3. Mattias Ekström | Pau Navarro 2. Yasir Seaidan 3. Nicolás Cavigliasso | Kyle Chaney 2. João Monteiro 3. Jeremías González Ferioli |
| 2025 | Yazeed Al Rajhi 2. Henk Lategan 3. Mattias Ekström | Nicolás Cavigliasso 2. G. Guerreiro 3. Pau Navarro | Alexandre Pinto 2. E. Gaspari 3. R. Grouwels |
| 2024 | Carlos Sainz 2. Guillaume de Mévius 3. Guerlain Chicherit | Mitch Guthrie 2. Rokas Baciuška 3. A. Jones | Yasir Seaidan 2. Sara Price 3. João Ferreira |
| 2023 | Nasser Al-Attiyah 2. Sébastien Loeb 3. Martin Prokop | A. Jones 2. Seth Quintero 3. Cristina Gutiérrez | Eryk Goczał 2. Rokas Baciuška 3. M. Goczał |
| 2022 | Nasser Al-Attiyah 2. Sébastien Loeb 3. Yazeed Al Rajhi | Francisco López Contardo 2. Cristina Gutiérrez 3. S. Navarro | A. Jones 2. Rokas Baciuška 3. M. Goczał |
How well this model does on the Dakar
Each crew carries a strength rating fitted with a Plackett-Luce model on every W2RC event since 2022. Two orderings feed it: the final classification, and the order of stage points scored, which captures pace that a mechanical failure or a navigation error hides. The stage-point signal carries 65 per cent of the weight. Results decay with an eighteen-month half-life and the Dakar counts 1.4 times a normal round.
A Dakar is simulated as a strength score plus noise averaged over six draws, against three for a five-day rally. Retirement risk is each crew’s own record at the 2024 to 2026 Dakars, pulled toward the field rate of about 15 per cent, floored at 6 and capped at 35. Earlier tables hide retirements, so they are not used for the hazard.
Before any model change ships, it has to improve the Dakar holdouts: fit on everything known before Dakar 2025 and 2026, predict, compare. Both winners were in the top two picks under the current version.
What the Dakar 2027 is
The Dakar Rally is the biggest rally raid in the world and the opening round of the FIA and FIM World Rally-Raid Championship. It is organised by Amaury Sport Organisation (A.S.O.), the company behind the Tour de France, with David Castera as race director since the 2020 edition. The rally moved to Saudi Arabia in 2020 after eleven years in South America and thirty in Africa, and the 2027 edition is the eighth in the Kingdom.
According to the FIA calendar the 2027 Dakar runs from 1 to 15 January 2027. The organiser’s route presentation places the start and finish at King Abdullah Economic City on the Red Sea coast north of Jeddah, with the route heading north to Al-Ula and Ha’il, east to Al-Duwadimi, then south through Bisha and Wadi Ad-Dawasir before returning to the coast. Registration closes on 20 October 2026; European scrutineering and shipping are scheduled for 27 and 28 November. Stage distances will be added here when the organiser publishes them.
Five FIA titles are decided across the same route: Ultimate for the T1 prototypes that fight for the overall win, Stock for production-based T2 cars, Challenger for the lightweight T3 prototypes, SSV for the T4 side-by-sides, and Masters for drivers over fifty who hold FIA Silver status. Bikes, quads and trucks run under the FIM and their own regulations and are not rated here yet.
The situation in the region
Since 28 February 2026 Saudi Arabia has been on the receiving end of Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Riyadh, the Gulf coast refineries and the Prince Sultan air base, and, since 8 September, of Houthi strikes on Aramco facilities in Abha, Najran and Jazan near the Yemeni border. Formula 1 cancelled its Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in March and moved the Bahrain race to Malaysia in July. Germany’s foreign office keeps a partial travel warning for the Yemeni border region, with the rest of the country under general security advice.
A.S.O. wrote to entrants on 15 September that the organisation of the Dakar 2027 is progressing as planned and that it is working as usual with its Saudi partners. The published route runs through the interior west and centre, north of the warned zones. The open questions are insurance under travel warnings, airspace closures and the willingness of teams and mechanics to travel.
Car winners in Saudi Arabia
| Year | Crew | Car |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Carlos Sainz / Lucas Cruz | Mini John Cooper Works Buggy |
| 2021 | Stéphane Peterhansel / Édouard Boulanger | Mini John Cooper Works Buggy |
| 2022 | Nasser Al-Attiyah / Matthieu Baumel | Toyota GR DKR Hilux T1+ |
| 2023 | Nasser Al-Attiyah / Matthieu Baumel | Toyota GR DKR Hilux T1+ |
| 2024 | Carlos Sainz / Lucas Cruz | Audi RS Q e-tron E2 |
| 2025 | Yazeed Al Rajhi / Timo Gottschalk | Toyota Hilux Overdrive |
| 2026 | Nasser Al-Attiyah / Fabian Lurquin | Dacia Sandrider |
Questions people ask
When is the Dakar 2027?
1 to 15 January 2027 according to the FIA World Rally-Raid Championship calendar, starting and finishing at King Abdullah Economic City in Saudi Arabia. The organiser had not published the detailed stage schedule when this page was written.
Will the Dakar 2027 be cancelled?
A.S.O. says it is progressing as planned. Our own estimate, explained in the magazine, is that the rally runs as scheduled with about 55 per cent probability, runs in a modified form with about 20 per cent, and does not take place in January 2027 with about 25 per cent. That estimate is editorial judgment, not a model output.
Who is favourite for the Dakar 2027?
Our model has Nasser Al-Attiyah at about 25 per cent, ahead of Henk Lategan and Sébastien Loeb. The board above updates after the Rallye du Maroc, after Abu Dhabi and when the entry list is published.
How accurate are these predictions?
Fitted only on what was known beforehand, the model had the eventual winner as its second pick for Dakar 2025 and its first pick for Dakar 2026, with 17 and 34 per cent of the probability respectively. On five-day rallies it does less well, 16.5 per cent on the winner against 9.3 for a blind guess.