Rallye du Maroc 2026
Five stages, 1,575 kilometres against the clock and about 2,500 in total, run by Pro Dunes Events with five-time Dakar winner Marc Coma as race director. Fifty-five championship points are on the table for FIA crews, and the world title is a three-point fight. Whatever happens here feeds straight into the Dakar 2027 forecast.
How this forecast came together
RaidRating started with a simple question: how predictable is rally raid? The FIA World Rally-Raid Championship has published a championship table for every round since the series began in 2022. Those tables record, for every registered crew, the position at each event and the stage points collected along the way. We collected all of them, 22 events and more than 400 driver-seasons across the five titles, checked every recomputed total against the official one, and turned them into a single results archive.
From that archive each crew gets a strength rating. It is fitted with a Plackett-Luce model, the same family used to rate chess players and ranked-choice contests, on two orderings per event: where a crew finished, and how many stage points it scored. Stage points matter because they show pace that a puncture, a navigation error or a broken driveshaft can erase from the final classification. Older results fade with an eighteen-month half-life, and the Dakar counts 1.4 times a normal round because two weeks tell you more than five days.
To forecast a race we then run it twenty thousand times. Each run adds noise to every rating, draws retirements from each crew’s own record at rally-length rounds, and sorts the field. Counting how often a crew wins, reaches the podium or finishes in the top five gives the probabilities on this page. The rating model itself is refitted sixty times on resampled seasons, which is where the ranges under the numbers come from.
Before publishing anything we test the model the only honest way: by pretending we did not know the result. Fitted only on what was known before each round, it puts 16.5 per cent on the eventual winner across the seventeen rally-length rounds since 2022, against 9.3 per cent for a blind guess, and had both recent Dakar winners in its top two. That edge is real and modest. It is why the numbers here carry ranges rather than decimals, and why they are published as analysis and never as betting advice.
Two rankings live side by side on every board. The FIA keeps a Priority Drivers list for cross-country rallies, with Platinum and Gold as the named professional tiers; everyone else registered in the championship holds Silver status. Filtering to non-priority crews answers the question most of the field is actually racing: who is the best of the rest. On this entry list only fifteen of the 56 Ultimate crews hold Platinum or Gold, so the non-priority filter is where most of the rally actually happens. The page is updated after every stage once the rally starts.
Who wins the Rallye du Maroc in Ultimate
Fifty-six Ultimate crews, the deepest Morocco entry of the championship era. Al-Attiyah is the clear favourite on pace: he has out-scored everyone on stage points all season, and the model rewards that more than it rewards Loeb’s better final positions. Sixteen of these crews have never started a World Championship round, so they share the newcomer rating and sit tied near the back of the board.
Twenty thousand simulated runnings over 56 crews, plus 60 bootstrap refits of the rating model. The range under each number is the 10th to 90th percentile across those refits. Hover any column header for its definition.
| # | Crew | Rating | Win | Podium | Top 5 | DNF | Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 299Nasser Al-AttiyahPlatinumT1+ with Fabian Lurquin The Dacia Sandriders · dacia sandrider | 3.52 | 17.8% 10.5–26.2 | 42.0% 27.5–56.3 | 58.1% | 4% | 7.8 2–9 | |
| 02 | 219Sébastien LoebGoldT1+ with Édouard Boulanger The Dacia Sandriders · dacia sandrider | 2.56 | 9.0% 3.0–16.1 | 24.9% 9.6–38.9 | 37.9% | 11% | 13.5 4–15 | |
| 03 | 202Henk LateganPlatinumT1+ with Brett Cummings Toyota Gazoo Racing W2RC · toyota hilux gr | 2.40 | 7.6% 4.6–11.1 | 20.9% 14.6–29.4 | 32.1% | 17% | 17.1 4–20 | |
| 04 | 223Lucas MoraesPlatinumT1+ with Pablo Moreno The Dacia Sandriders · dacia sandrider | 2.17 | 6.8% 2.8–10.0 | 19.1% 8.8–27.5 | 29.9% | 11% | 15.4 5–19 | |
| 05 | 203Seth QuinteroGoldT1+ with Andrew Short Toyota Gazoo Racing W2RC · toyota hilux gr | 1.99 | 5.9% 3.6–9.4 | 17.1% 11.1–26.6 | 27.2% | 11% | 16.4 5–21 | |
| 06 | 240João FerreiraSilverT1+ with Filipe Palmeiro Toyota Gazoo Racing SA · toyota hilux imt evo | 1.73 | 4.1% 2.2–6.0 | 12.4% 8.1–17.7 | 20.8% | 14% | 18.9 7–24 | |
| 07 | 227Nani RomaGoldT1+ with Alex Haro Ford Racing · ford raptor | 1.62 | 4.0% 1.7–5.9 | 12.4% 6.1–16.7 | 20.6% | 9% | 17.4 7–23 | |
| 08 | 201Yazeed Al RajhiPlatinumT1+ with Timo Gottschalk Overdrive Racing · toyota hilux gr | 1.66 | 4.0% 2.1–7.7 | 12.8% 7.1–20.9 | 21.1% | 8% | 16.9 6–22 | |
| 09 | 216Guy BotterillSilverT1+ with Henry Köhne Toyota Gazoo Racing SA · toyota hilux imt evo | 1.57 | 3.4% 1.9–5.7 | 10.8% 6.6–17.2 | 18.5% | 10% | 18.4 7–24 | |
| 10 | 226Mattias EkströmGoldT1+ with Emil Bergkvist Ford Racing · ford raptor | 1.63 | 3.1% 1.2–6.3 | 9.8% 4.0–17.8 | 16.8% | 25% | 24.5 8–56 | |
| 11 | 215Saood VariawaGoldT1+ with Charan Moore Toyota Gazoo Racing SA · toyota hilux imt evo | 1.35 | 2.7% 1.4–3.6 | 8.3% 4.7–11.7 | 13.9% | 14% | 22.1 9–30 | |
| 12 | 205Eryk GoczałSilverT1+ with Szymon Gospodarczyk Energylandia Rally Team · ford raptor | 1.24 | 2.3% 0.9–3.6 | 7.4% 3.2–11.5 | 13.1% | 7% | 20.5 9–28 | |
| 13 | 222Guillaume de MéviusGoldT1+ with Mathieu Baumel X-Raid Team · x-raid mini jcw 3.0i | 1.27 | 2.2% 1.0–3.1 | 7.1% 3.5–9.2 | 12.2% | 17% | 24.1 10–33 | |
| 14 | 228Mitch GuthrieGoldT1+ with Kellon Walch Ford Racing · ford raptor | 1.32 | 2.1% 1.0–3.2 | 6.7% 3.6–10.3 | 11.7% | 21% | 25.5 10–38 | |
| 15 | 225Carlos SainzPlatinumT1+ with Daniel Oliveras Ford Racing · ford raptor | 1.23 | 1.8% 0.8–2.8 | 6.0% 2.9–8.5 | 10.5% | 22% | 26.7 11–40 | |
| 16 | 212Cristina GutiérrezNo priorityT1+ with Marc Solà Santana Racing Team · santana 400 t1+ | 1.06 | 1.7% 0.7–1.9 | 5.4% 2.9–6.3 | 9.8% | 10% | 23.8 12–33 | |
| 17 | 236Sebastián HalpernNo priorityT1+ with Edu Pulenta X-Raid Team · x-raid mini jcw 3.0i | 1.00 | 1.5% 0.9–1.8 | 5.0% 3.5–5.9 | 8.8% | 6% | 23.3 12–32 | |
| 18 | 220Mathieu SerradoriSilverT1+ with Loïc Minaudier Century Racing Factory Team · century racing cr7 | 1.00 | 1.3% 0.5–2.2 | 4.4% 1.8–7.0 | 7.9% | 15% | 26.8 13–37 | |
| 19 | 245Urvo MännamaNo priorityT1+ with Kuldar Sikk Overdrive Racing · toyota hilux gr | 0.93 | 1.2% 0.2–1.4 | 3.8% 1.1–4.4 | 7.1% | 11% | 26.7 14–37 | |
| 20 | 234Mark MustermannSilverT1+ with Michael Zajc MM Rallye · ford raptor | 0.90 | 1.0% 0.2–1.1 | 3.3% 0.9–3.7 | 5.9% | 25% | 31.6 17–56 |
Where would you finish in this field?
Most crews in a rally raid are not racing for the win. They are racing the other non-priority crews, and a top ten among works teams is the result of a career. Pick the profile closest to yours: the model reads how crews like that have actually finished at World Championship rounds since 2023, places you accordingly, then lets you adjust the pace.
W2RC standings after three rounds
This is the official FIA World Rally-Raid Championship table, which pools Ultimate, Challenger and SSV crews into one title. The class titles are ranked separately.
| # | Crew | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Sébastien Loeb with Édouard Boulanger The Dacia Sandriders | 39 | 48 | 27 | 114 |
| 02 | Sébastien Loeb co-driver to be confirmed FRA · Dacia | 114 | |||
| 03 | Nasser Al-Attiyah with Fabian Lurquin The Dacia Sandriders | 73 | 7 | 31 | 111 |
| 04 | Nasser Al-Attiyah co-driver to be confirmed QAT · Dacia | 111 | |||
| 05 | Seth Quintero with Andrew Short Toyota Gazoo Racing W2RC | 24 | 37 | 40 | 101 |
| 06 | Seth Quintero co-driver to be confirmed USA · Toyota | 101 | |||
| 07 | Nani Roma with Alex Haro Ford Racing | 45 | — | 14 | 59 |
| 08 | Nani Roma co-driver to be confirmed ESP · Ford | 59 | |||
| 09 | Lucas Moraes co-driver to be confirmed The Dacia Sandriders | 24 | 29 | 4 | 57 |
| 10 | Lucas Moraes co-driver to be confirmed BRA · Dacia | 57 | |||
| 11 | Henk Lategan with Brett Cummings Toyota Gazoo Racing W2RC | 20 | 1 | 35 | 56 |
| 12 | Henk Lategan co-driver to be confirmed RSA · Toyota | 56 | |||
| 13 | Mattias Ekström with Emil Bergkvist Ford Racing | 52 | 1 | — | 53 |
| 14 | João Ferreira with Filipe Palmeiro Toyota Gazoo Racing SA | 12 | 34 | 6 | 52 |
| 15 | Carlos Sainz with Lucas Cruz Ford Racing | 27 | 1 | 10 | 38 |
| 16 | Eryk Goczał with Szymon Gospodarczyk Energylandia Rally Team | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 |
| 17 | Saood Variawa with François Cazalet Toyota Gazoo Racing SA | 16 | 1 | 19 | 36 |
| 18 | Yazeed Al Rajhi with Timo Gottschalk Overdrive Racing | 5 | 17 | 13 | 35 |
| 19 | Guy Botterill with Oriol Mena Toyota Gazoo Racing SA | 9 | 24 | — | 33 |
| 20 | Mathieu Serradori with Loïc Minaudier Century Racing Factory Team | 27 | 2 | — | 29 |
| 21 | Toby Price with Armand Monleon Toyota Gazoo Racing W2RC | 27 | — | — | 27 |
Who leads the world championship on the Monday after
Loeb leads Al-Attiyah by three points with two rounds left, but simulating Morocco with the real points scale, including a draw from the historical spread of stage points for each finishing position, makes Al-Attiyah the more likely leader on the Monday after: he takes the lead in 54 per cent of the runs, Loeb keeps it in 37. Quintero needs a repeat of his Ruta 40 win plus trouble for both Dacias.
| # | Crew | Now | Median after | Leads | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Nasser Al-Attiyah | 111 | 134 | 53.3% | |
| 02 | Sébastien Loeb | 114 | 128 | 36.6% | |
| 03 | Seth Quintero | 101 | 110 | 10.0% |
Podiums since the championship began
Four different Ultimate winners in four years, and none of them repeated. That instability is the most useful single fact about this event. The model still makes Al-Attiyah the clear favourite at about 19 per cent, which means four of five simulated rallies are won by somebody else.
| Year | Ultimate | Challenger | SSV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sébastien Loeb 2. Lucas Moraes 3. Nani Roma | Pau Navarro 2. Nicolás Cavigliasso 3. Puck Klaassen | Manuel Andújar |
| 2024 | Nasser Al-Attiyah 2. Guillaume de Mévius 3. Yazeed Al Rajhi | Eryk Goczał 2. M. Goczał 3. Dania Akeel | Yasir Seaidan 2. Sebastián Guayasamín 3. Rebecca Busi |
| 2023 | Yazeed Al Rajhi 2. Denis Krotov 3. Juan Cruz Yacopini | Seth Quintero 2. Cristina Gutiérrez 3. Kees Koolen | Sebastián Guayasamín 2. S. Umeda |
| 2022 | Guerlain Chicherit 2. Orlando Terranova 3. Nasser Al-Attiyah | Seth Quintero 2. Francisco López Contardo 3. Cristina Gutiérrez | Rokas Baciuška 2. Pau Navarro 3. Lucas Del Rio |
How well this model does on a five-day rally
Each crew carries a strength rating fitted with a Plackett-Luce model on every W2RC event since 2022. Two orderings feed it: the final classification, and the order of stage points scored, which captures pace that a mechanical failure or a navigation error hides. The stage-point signal carries 65 per cent of the weight, and a crew that scores no stage points at an event counts as beaten by every crew that did. Results decay with an eighteen-month half-life and the Dakar counts 1.4 times a normal round.
A race is simulated as a strength score plus noise, with the noise averaged over three draws for a five-day rally against six for the Dakar. A shorter rally gives the fastest crew less time to prove it, so the spread of plausible outcomes is wider.
Retirement risk is each crew’s own rate at rally-length rounds, pulled toward the field rate of about 12 per cent, floored at 4 and capped at 25. A crew with no record gets the field rate and the newcomer rating of 0.55, which is what a first-time entrant in Ultimate has historically been worth. Crews that have raced another class carry no rating across: we tested that on the 24 class changes in the archive and it did not predict the new class better than the newcomer rating. Those crews are marked class change and their record is in the tooltip.
What the Rallye du Maroc is
The Rallye du Maroc is Morocco’s round of the FIA and FIM World Rally-Raid Championship (W2RC), the world championship of cross-country rallying that also includes the Dakar Rally. Its full title in 2026 is the Rallye OLA Energy du Maroc, after title partner OLA Energy. It is run under the High Patronage of His Majesty King Mohammed VI, with Himoinsa and BFGoodrich as official partners and the FRMSA and FRMM as national federations.
The 2026 edition is round four of five. It starts with administrative checks and scrutineering in Agadir on 26 and 27 September, a public FIA shakedown and FIM prologue on 28 September, and five competitive stages from 29 September to 3 October. Stage 1 runs from Agadir to Zagora; the remaining four stages loop out of the Zagora bivouac. Cars cover 1,575 kilometres of selective sections and about 2,500 kilometres in total, with the car and bike routes split for most of the week so that FIA crews get longer distances than in previous editions. The terrain is 44 per cent gravel and dirt track, 31 per cent sandy track, 11 per cent stony track, 10 per cent dunes and 4 per cent asphalt.
Who runs it
The rally is organised by Pro Dunes Events, an Andorra-based promoter formed by Pep Vila, Manel Arroyo, Francisco Gracia and Marc Coma. Coma is the race director. He won the Dakar five times on a motorcycle, took six FIM rally-raid world titles and three Rallye du Maroc wins as a rider, and served as the Dakar’s sporting director from 2016 to 2019. Luc Alphand, Dakar car winner in 2006, is his deputy. Benoit Soulas is clerk of the course for the cars.
From 2017 to 2025 the event belonged to ODC Events, the company of David Castera, who is also the race director of the Dakar Rally. Castera turned the Rallye du Maroc into the sport’s standard pre-Dakar test. Pro Dunes co-organised the 2025 edition and took full control from 1 November 2025, so the 2026 rally is the first fully under the new promoter. The move to a late-September date, and the split car and bike routes, are the first visible changes.
A short history
Morocco has hosted rally raid since the Paris-Agadir of 1982, which became the Atlas Rally the following year and ran through the 1990s before disappearing. The Rallye du Maroc was born in 2000 under Cyril Neveu and Jean-Christophe Pelletier. In 2007 the organising company passed to Emma and Stéphane Clair and the event joined the FIA World Cup for Cross-Country Rallies. It moved to ODC Events in 2017 and became a round of the new World Rally-Raid Championship when that series launched in 2022.
Nasser Al-Attiyah is the most successful car driver in the modern era with seven wins, five of them in a row from 2014 to 2018, then 2021 and 2024. Giniel de Villiers and Jean-Louis Schlesser won four each, Stéphane Peterhansel three. No car winner has repeated since 2018.
The 2026 route
| Day | Date | Route | Special (km) | Total (km) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakedown | 28 Sep | Agadir | 18 | 176 |
| Stage 1 | 29 Sep | Agadir to Zagora | 268 | 636 |
| Stage 2 | 30 Sep | Zagora loop | 300 | 423 |
| Stage 3 | 1 Oct | Zagora loop | 364 | 593 |
| Stage 4 | 2 Oct | Zagora loop | 384 | 516 |
| Stage 5 | 3 Oct | Zagora loop, prize-giving 19:30 | 259 | 357 |
Car winners since 2000
| Year | Crew | Car |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Jean-Louis Schlesser / Henri Magne | Schlesser buggy |
| 2001 | Jean-Louis Schlesser / Henri Magne | Schlesser buggy |
| 2002 | Jean-Louis Schlesser / Henri Magne | Schlesser buggy |
| 2003 | Giniel de Villiers / Tina Thörner | Nissan |
| 2004 | Stéphane Peterhansel / Jean-Paul Cottret | Mitsubishi |
| 2005 | Bruno Saby / Michel Périn | Volkswagen |
| 2006 | Giniel de Villiers / Dirk von Zitzewitz | Volkswagen |
| 2007 | Giniel de Villiers / Dirk von Zitzewitz | Volkswagen |
| 2008 | Jean-Louis Schlesser / Arnaud Debron | Schlesser buggy |
| 2009 | Stéphane Peterhansel / Jean-Paul Cottret | BMW X-raid |
| 2010 | Stéphane Peterhansel / Jean-Paul Cottret | BMW X-raid |
| 2011 | Bernhard ten Brinke / Matthieu Baumel | Mitsubishi |
| 2012 | Éric Vigouroux / Alexandre Winocq | Chevrolet |
| 2013 | Orlando Terranova / Paulo Fiuza | Mini All4 Racing |
| 2014 | Nasser Al-Attiyah / Matthieu Baumel | Mini All4 Racing |
| 2015 | Nasser Al-Attiyah / Matthieu Baumel | Mini All4 Racing |
| 2016 | Nasser Al-Attiyah / Matthieu Baumel | Toyota Hilux |
| 2017 | Nasser Al-Attiyah / Matthieu Baumel | Toyota Hilux |
| 2018 | Nasser Al-Attiyah / Matthieu Baumel | Toyota Hilux |
| 2019 | Giniel de Villiers / Alex Haro | Toyota Hilux |
| 2020 | Cancelled | |
| 2021 | Nasser Al-Attiyah / Matthieu Baumel | Toyota Hilux |
| 2022 | Guerlain Chicherit / Alex Winocq | Prodrive Hunter |
| 2023 | Yazeed Al Rajhi / Timo Gottschalk | Toyota Hilux |
| 2024 | Nasser Al-Attiyah / Édouard Boulanger | Dacia Sandrider |
| 2025 | Sébastien Loeb / Édouard Boulanger | Dacia Sandrider |
Questions people ask
When is the Rallye du Maroc 2026?
28 September to 3 October 2026. The shakedown is on 28 September in Agadir, Stage 1 on 29 September, and the finish and prize-giving on 3 October in Zagora.
Where does it start and finish?
It starts in Agadir on the Atlantic coast and finishes in Zagora, on the edge of the Sahara, where the bivouac sits for the last four days.
How long is it?
1,575 kilometres of timed selective sections for cars over five stages, and about 2,500 kilometres including road sections.
Is it part of the Dakar?
No. It is a separate event, but both are rounds of the FIA World Rally-Raid Championship, and Morocco has long been the last major test before the Dakar in January.
Who won the Rallye du Maroc in 2025?
Sébastien Loeb and Édouard Boulanger in a Dacia Sandrider, ahead of Lucas Moraes and Nani Roma. Pau Navarro won Challenger and Manuel Andújar SSV.
Who is favourite for 2026?
Our model has Nasser Al-Attiyah as favourite at about 19 per cent, ahead of Sébastien Loeb near 9, then Henk Lategan and Lucas Moraes. Fifty-six crews are entered in Ultimate, so the favourite losing is still much the likelier outcome.