DRIVER MARKET
Dacia is leaving. Where do four Dakar winners go?
Al-Attiyah, Loeb, Moraes and Gutiérrez are all out of contract after Abu Dhabi. What each move would do to the Dakar 2027 board.
22 MAY 2026 · 6 MIN
NEXT EVENT · W2RC ROUND 1
Dakar
2027
01 – 15 JAN 2027 · SAUDI ARABIA100 DAYS
Ratings and win probabilities for every FIA class, computed from every World Rally-Raid Championship result since 2022.
ULTIMATE · WHO WINS
N. Al-Attiyah
0.2%
N. Al-Attiyah
19.5%
H. Lategan
0.1%
S. Loeb
17.8%
20 CREWS · 18,000 SIMULATIONSFULL FORECAST →
Ultimate
T1+ · 20 CREWS RATED
Stock
NEW FOR 2026 · THIN DATA
Challenger
T3 · SINCE 2022
SSV
T4 · SINCE 2022
Masters
OVER 50 · SILVER GRADE
Current top 10 ratings
ALL CLASSES →Ultimate, after Desafío Ruta 40. 1.00 is an average entrant.
01S. Loeb
4.51
02N. Al-Attiyah
3.61
03M. Ekström
3.11
04M. Guthrie
2.56
05H. Lategan
2.40
06L. Moraes
2.34
2026 championship
FULL TABLE →FIA World Rally-Raid Championship, after 3 of 5 rounds.
01
S. Loeb
114
01
S. Loeb
DACIA
114
02
N. Al-Attiyah
111
02
N. Al-Attiyah
DACIA
111
03
S. Quintero
101
03
S. Quintero
TOYOTA
101
NEXT ROUND
Rallye du Maroc
28 SEP – 03 OCT 2026
ROUND 4 OF 5 · MOROCCO
ROUND 4 OF 5 · MOROCCO
Ratings and standings refresh within 48 hours of the finish.
Latest analysis
ALL POSTS →PREVIEW
What Morocco actually decides
Three points separate Loeb and Al-Attiyah with two rounds left. The points scenarios that settle the 2026 title, and the ones that do not.
18 MAY 2026 · 4 MIN
ACCURACY REVIEW
How our Dakar 2026 forecast held up
We had Al-Attiyah at 21.2% and he won. That is not a victory lap: here is what the model got wrong further down the order.
04 MAY 2026 · 7 MIN
THE METHOD
Every forecast stays on the record
A published prediction is never quietly edited. The rating, the simulation and the backtests are documented, and the accuracy review runs after every Dakar whether it flatters us or not.
DAKAR 2025
21.9%
ON THE WINNER
DAKAR 2026
21.2%
ON THE WINNER