Where will Dakar 2027 run? Our live forecast after the Saudi exit

The news feed

Newest first. Each report gets one of four evidence ratings, and each card shows the lines of the forecast board it touches. Confirmed: the organiser says it on the record. Strong: a named official, or several outlets independently. Plausible: one specialist outlet with unnamed sources. Rumour: unsourced or second-hand.

What would move the numbers

• A.S.O. names the host country and the route, promised "in the coming days". Morocco goes to 99 per cent, and the as-reported line towards 95.
• Official confirmation from the Algarve. The Portugal start goes above 95 per cent.
• The ferry plan. It settles the crossing tab and whether there is a stage in Spain.
• Entries close, reportedly on 16 November. A late entry list shows which teams come back now that the insurance problem is gone.
• A security warning on the southern Moroccan route. The only realistic way back to the cancellation line.

Our analysis of 23 October

Published four days before the official announcement and kept as it was, apart from the estimate, which the forecast board now replaces, and the timeline at the end.

Where things stand on 23 October

On Monday 19 October A.S.O. told drivers and teams that the Dakar 2027 will not run in Saudi Arabia. The news reached the public through the Catalan daily Ara the same evening, then through Moto Verte, Mundo Deportivo and Motor16, and on 21 October through Reuters, citing two drivers and a team manager in the World Rally-Raid Championship. A.S.O., the FIA and the FIM did not comment to Reuters. The full route is expected to be published around 26 or 27 October.

The reason is the one this magazine laid out in September, only sharper. Houthi strikes on Saudi cities, airports and energy infrastructure have escalated, and on 10 October a strike on Riyadh's international airport reportedly killed at least twelve people. A route that avoided the border provinces was no longer enough once airports and insurers became the issue.

The plan B, as reported

• Dates: 9 to 22 January 2027, instead of 1 to 15 January. Scrutineering in Europe from 6 to 8 January, prologue on 9 January, rest day on 16 January.
• Start: Spain or Portugal, not yet decided. Portuguese press names three options under study: the Algarve, Madrid and Valencia.
• Crossing: by ferry over the Strait of Gibraltar, Algeciras to Tangier in the Portuguese scenario.
• Morocco: twelve stages including a marathon stage, about 4,900 km in total, with Merzouga as the sporting centre. The Moroccan part of the route is reported as finalised.
• Scale: the Saudi route presented in May had 5,320 km of timed specials. The 4,900 km reported now is a total, so the two numbers are not directly comparable, but the timed distance will be shorter.
• Name and format: it stays the Dakar, with the classic two-week shape. An eight-stage, Morocco-only rally was studied first and did not convince the main teams.

None of this is on dakar.com yet. Treat the dates and the start city as reported, not confirmed, until A.S.O. publishes the route and the sporting regulations.

Why we think this plan holds

Every piece of this route has been raced in the last few months. Baja Spain Aragón ran in September as a round of the FIA World Baja Cup. BP Ultimate Rally-Raid Portugal was round two of the World Rally-Raid Championship. Rallye du Maroc, round four, finished on 3 October. That means permits, bivouac sites, medical and helicopter cover, local organisers and hotels that have all been used this year, and teams that know the ground.

The logistics also become simpler for the people who carry the event. Most of the field is European: service trucks can drive to the start instead of going on a ship to Jeddah, and the ferry crossing to Tangier is a routine part of every Rallye du Maroc. Pro Dunes, which organises the Rallye du Maroc, has said it will offer every facility. For a decision taken eleven weeks before the start, it is the easiest Dakar A.S.O. could organise.

There is a sporting cost. Marc Coma, director of the Rallye du Maroc, warned that the south of Morocco "wears out quickly", so twelve stages have to reach towards the Sahara to avoid repeating the same ground. Expect familiar terrain for anyone who raced Morocco this month, and cold January nights in the Atlas.

And Dakar, Senegal?

The romantic answer would be to drive all the way to Dakar, as the rally did until 2007 and as the Africa Eco Race still does: its 18th edition runs from Tangier to Dakar from 24 January to 6 February 2027. We would love to see it, and we do not believe it will happen. Crossing Mauritania was exactly what led to the cancellation in 2008, the security work for that corridor cannot be done in ten weeks, and A.S.O. is bound to Saudi Arabia by a ten-year contract that runs to 2029. Everything points to a one-year relocation, not a return to Africa.

Our estimate on 23 October

This is editorial judgment, not a model output. In September we wrote 55 per cent for a Dakar as scheduled, 20 per cent for a changed Dakar and 25 per cent for no Dakar in January. Two of those three scenarios are now gone in the form we described them.

• Runs 9 to 22 January on a Europe and Morocco route: 80 per cent. Up when A.S.O. publishes the route and the regulations. Down if a start country or a stage area falls through at a late stage.
• Runs in January, but different from what is reported: 15 per cent. A shorter Morocco-only format, a different start, or dates that move again.
• No Dakar in January 2027: 5 per cent. It would take a new security problem on the Moroccan route or a logistics failure at this late stage.

Superseded by the forecast board at the top of this page.

The biggest change is not geographic. The insurance problem we called the strongest argument against the Saudi edition largely disappears in Spain, Portugal and Morocco, so works teams that might have stayed at home will be there.

What it means for the forecasts

The Dakar 2027 forecast on this site was built for a Saudi route. The ratings do not depend on geography, but the race shape does: a shorter timed distance gives the favourite less time to prove the gap, and Moroccan terrain that most crews raced weeks ago reduces the edge of drivers who are strongest in Saudi dunes. We will rerun the simulation when the route is public and say which numbers moved. Until A.S.O. confirms the dates, the countdown on the site still runs to 1 January.

Timeline

• 28 February 2026: strikes on Iran, Iranian missiles and drones on Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom becomes a target.
• 14 March: Formula 1 cancels the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
• 8 September: Houthi missiles and drones hit Aramco sites in Abha, Najran and Jazan.
• 15 September: A.S.O. writes to entrants that the Dakar 2027 is progressing as planned with its Saudi partners.
• 10 October: a strike on Riyadh international airport reportedly kills at least twelve people.
• Mid-October: Spanish press reports two options under study, a northern route inside Saudi Arabia and an eight-day rally in Morocco.
• 19 October: A.S.O. tells drivers and teams that the rally leaves Saudi Arabia, with a European start and a Moroccan route from 9 to 22 January.
• 21 October: Reuters reports the move, citing two drivers and a team manager.
• 25 October: A.S.O. and the Saudi Motorsport Company confirm that the 2027 edition leaves Saudi Arabia for one year and that Saudi Arabia hosts the 50th edition in 2028. Todo Terreno reports Loulé as the start.
• 26 October: the Algarve's tourism president says the Dakar start is "well on track" and expects confirmation within days.
• Still open: the host country and the route, which A.S.O. says will follow "in the coming days". Entries reportedly close on 16 November.